- Several teams are on the bubble for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament as the regular season nears its end.
- UCLA and Indiana have improved their tournament chances with recent significant victories.
- Teams like TCU and Seton Hall are currently projected as among the ‘first four out’ after recent losses.
It’s quite fascinating how when the NCAA men’s basketball tournament picture gets magnified, the bubble for teams hoping to make the field begins to move in all sorts of ways.
Teams like UCLA and Indiana pick up major victories that put them on track to avoid this uncomfortable position in the March Madness conversation. Then you get ones like TCU and Seton Hall that start to get punched in the mouth by their conference foes and are having a hard time recovering.
The bubble watch has taken notice and now reaches another critical point: January is wrapping up, which means there’s about one month left in the regular season, and teams can be worry free or completely stressed by the time conference tournaments begin.
Here are the teams currently on the bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.
UCLA
- Record: 15-6 (7-3)
- NET Ranking: 42
- Quad 1 record: 2-5
- Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
- Quality wins: vs. Purdue
- Bad losses: vs. California (neutral)
The Bruins are in a resurgence at the right time, with its win against Purdue kick starting a three-game win streak. While a Quad 2 game, this weekend’s home contest against Indiana will be a big opportunity to get out of the bubble. In the top half of the Big Ten, UCLA must stay in that group before the schedule gets tough in the middle of February.
New Mexico
- Record: 17-4 (8-2)
- NET Ranking: 38
- Quad 1 record: 1-3
- Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
- Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth
- Bad losses: at New Mexico State, at Boise State
The Lobos are doing all they can to maintain their stock while the opportunities to impress aren’t necessarily there, bumping the Quad 2 record to 4-0. However, New Mexico needs to handle San Jose State to set up a monster Mountain West showdown with Utah State on Feb. 4, which is shaping up to be a Quad 1 chance, one it needs to get off the bubble.
Miami (Fla.)
- Record: 17-4 (6-2)
- NET Ranking: 36
- Quad 1 record: 1-3
- Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
- Quality wins: At Wake Forest.
- Bad losses: vs. Florida State
A team that has tumbled down the bracket, the Hurricanes find themselves in the bubble thanks to a missed opportunity against Clemson and a bad Quad 3 loss to Florida State. The lone Quad 1 victory is against Wake Forest, not really impressive. Miami has at least responded accordingly with two consecutive wins, and it will have to keep it going with California and Boston College on deck to avoid falling completely out of the field.
Indiana
- Record: 14-7 (5-5)
- NET Ranking: 32
- Quad 1 record: 1-6
- Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
- Quality wins: vs. Purdue
- Bad losses: at Minnesota
Has some of the football magic rubbed off on Hoosier basketball? Whatever it is, things are going great in Bloomington with the hoops team trending up. Indiana finally got the much-needed Quad 1 win, and it’s even sweeter it came against rival Purdue. Hopefully, the momentum travels to Los Angeles for a massive West Coast trip, with Quad 1 games in UCLA and Southern California up next. At least a split is needed, but a perfect visit would keep the good times rolling.
TCU
- Record: 13-8 (3-5)
- NET Ranking: 46
- Quad 1 record: 3-5
- Projected seed: First four out
- Quality wins: vs. Florida (netural), vs. Wisconsin (neutral)
- Bad losses: vs. New Orleans, vs. Notre Dame, at Utah
The Horned Frogs now see themselves currently on the outside looking in as the Big 12 gauntlet rages on. They did get a Quad 1 win against Baylor but couldn’t build upon it by losing to Houston. There’s no reason to panic yet since TCU does have a slight break facing Colorado and Kansas State next, so just win those games to get back to .500 in conference play.
Seton Hall
- Record: 15-6 (5-5)
- NET Ranking: 50
- Quad 1 record: 1-3
- Projected seed: First four out
- Quality wins: vs. North Carolina State (neutral)
- Bad losses: at DePaul
What started off as a promising season for Shaheen Holloway’s team has fizzled out of a bit. The Pirates lost four consecutive games, including games against Butler and DePaul, that resulted in Seton Hall falling out of the field. It needs to improve its conference record and capture those few Quad 1 opportunities to boost that NET ranking, which is possible with trips to Villanova and Creighton on the horizon.
Missouri
- Record: 14-7 (4-4)
- NET Ranking: 73
- Quad 1 record: 3-4
- Projected seed: First four out
- Quality wins: vs. Florida, at Kentucky
- Bad losses: at Notre Dame, at Mississippi
Missouri really helped its case when it won three of its first four SEC games, but regressed when it proceeded to lose three of the next four. The Tigers have some quality wins, but their No. 73 NET ranking is extremely high for an at-large team. The Tigers need to handle Mississippi State and South Carolina when their resume can’t afford to lose those contests.
Virginia Tech
- Record: 16-6 (5-4)
- NET Ranking: 54
- Quad 1 record: 1-5
- Projected seed: First four out
- Quality wins: vs. Virginia
- Bad losses: vs. Stanford
The Hokies are making progress toward being a major in the bubble, with three wins in the last four games. It only makes Virginia Tech think what if it were able to close out some of those conference losses, as two of them were by one point and another by three points. Regardless, Virginia Tech is trending upward, and there is no greater chance to continue them climb with Duke coming to town and then another Quad 1 chance at North Carolina State.